The latest polls of business owners show a fall in confidence among the UK's five million small firms and freelancers.
Surveys by the Institute of Directors (IoD), the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) and freelance body IPSE have highlighted a dip in confidence among small business owners, after a more optimistic start to 2024.
It appears that concerns about the economy remain uppermost but businesses are also worried about what might be unveiled in the Autumn Budget. Prime minister Keir Starmer is warning that tough decisions will have to be taken to fix the UK's finances.
The IoD Directors' Economic Confidence Index, which measures business leader optimism in prospects for the UK economy, fell back to -12 in August, following a three-year high of +7 in July 2024. Business leader confidence in their own organisations also fell from +36 in July to +23 in August.
According to the IoD, the key factors having a negative impact on businesses are:
- UK economic conditions (cited by 56%);
- Skills/labour shortages (43%);
- Business taxes (41%);
- Compliance with government regulation (37%);
- Employment taxes (34%);
- Global economic conditions (33%).
"It's disappointing to see last month's welcome uptick in business leader confidence snuffed out over the summer … The newsflow in recent weeks on employment rights and Autumn tax rises has dented confidence in the environment for business in the UK." Anna Leach, IoD chief economist.
Meanwhile, the FSB Small Business Index for Q2 2024 saw the headline confidence reading tumble to -10.8 points, a fall of 16.3 points from Q1's +5.5 points.
The FSB data indicates that key barriers to growth are:
- The UK economy (cited by 60%);
- Consumer demand (34%);
- Labour costs (28%);
- The tax burden (22%);
- Access to skilled staff (21%);
- Utility costs (17%).
Even so, growth aspirations for the coming year are broadly in line with Q1, with over half of small firms (54%) saying they expect to grow over the next 12 months and only 13% saying they expect to contract. The proportion expecting to grow is the highest reading on this measure since Q2 2021.
"After a strong start to 2024, we were all hoping that the latest quarter would be just as positive for small businesses - if not more so. But sadly, it was not to be," said Tina McKenzie, FSB's policy chair.
"Small businesses are looking with trepidation at the government's forthcoming plans to change employment, which could both increase risk around small businesses employing people, and the costs when they do. The rise of labour costs will hold back economic growth, and points to the possibility of a contraction in small business job numbers, which would be terrible news for firms, for staff, for local communities and the national economy.
"Overall, the small business community is looking for reassurance from the government that it is listening to their concerns, especially around tax and employment. The fall in confidence among small firms is disheartening, but need not become a self-fulfilling prophecy."
The FSB is calling on the government to formally index the Employment Allowance to the rising living wage in order to help alleviate pressure on small firms.
New survey data from IPSE suggests that rising taxes are the biggest concern for small firms. The latest IPSE Freelancer Confidence Index survey has found that while confidence in the economy has risen slightly, freelancers are more concerned about their own fortunes. Most freelancers (64%) expect their costs to increase in the next 12 months by an average rate of 9.7%, significantly above the rate of inflation.
According to the IPSE findings, key issues appear to be the tax system and more specifically, the IR35 rules. Nearly four in five (79%) cited government tax policy relating to freelancing as having a negative impact on the performance of their businesses. This was followed closely by regulations on hiring freelancers, which were cited by 76% of respondents.
It remains to be seen how the Autumn Budget will shift the dial on small business confidence in the coming months.
Written by Rachel Miller.